Butterfly Effect

The butterfly effect is a popularized interpretation of one of the key elements of chaos theory and has its roots in something that mathematicians refer to as extreme sensitivity to initial conditions (small and seemingly insignificant changes at the start of a process can produce wildly different and practically unpredictable results). In 1961, American meteorologist Edward Lorenz was working on some of the first computer simulations of weather and wanted to repeat the last steps of a previous simulation. Because computers at that time were slow and difficult to use, Lorenz tried to save time by using the intermediate output from a previous simulation as input for a new simulation. The print out, however, rounded the results to three numbers past the decimal point and so he input .506 instead of entering the full .506127. Lorenz assumed that this minute difference in numbers would not significantly affect the results. To his surprise, the results of the second simulation were vastly different than the first, even though they should have been almost identical. The tiny difference in starting values produced completely different results. Lorenz’s work emphasized how important sensitivity to initial conditions can be in real-world applications such as weather forecasting. In 1963, Lorenz published his findings for the New York Academy of Sciences and spoke at several scientific conferences. He quoted a colleague who said that if Lorenz’s theory were correct, the flap of a seagull's wings could change the weather. He eventually changed this metaphor from a seagull’s wings to a butterfly flap and the butterfly effect was born.

Simply put, the butterfly effect is the notion that something as small as a flap of a butterfly’s wings can make a big impact – like causing a tornado on the other side of the world. The flapping wings move the air and the effect reverberates. If the butterfly hadn’t flapped its wings or had flapped in a different direction or with more or less force, the tornado may not have occurred in the same place or time, or at all.

I never expected that a meeting with another PF graduates would end up with a job offer. Last year, when I was enlisted in the company’s high-profile training program, I know there are a bunch of alumni who already graduated and are taking management position in the company now. So Mr. WD is one of the alumni I met in Beijing.

Frankly speaking, I didn’t hold any special purpose to meet him. I just felt it would be good to know some people in the company.Anyway I am new in the company and MBA education teaches me that networking is important. We spent less than one hour talking in a starbucks coffee shop. He just arrived China and still in a sort of culture impact period. He whined about the worker who should have installed the curtain for all the windows in his hourse but actully only did part of job. Of course, I tipped him how to deal with those naughty workers and it seemed that he liked my ideas. Afterwards, we didn’t speak with each other anymore. Suddenly, serveral weeks ago he phoned me and recommended me to his boss. To make the story short, I went thorugh the interviews and his boss likes me, the a job is offered.

What interested me is that the job offer proves the correctness of Butterfly Effect. I flapped when I met Mr.WD. Then he flapped when he recommended me to his boss. BAM, the flap reverberate and leads to a big effect. The effect reminds me of another fascinating aspect of the butterfly effect – we don’t know which flaps will catalyze things the most. We act hundreds of times each day and some of those actions will grow legs and reverberate more than others. Why? We are not the only ones flapping! We might go to a coffee shop on Monday and have a coffee. On Tuesday, we might go to the same coffee shop and meet our soul mate.

Actions lead to reactions - sometimes. We flap our butterfly wings and things happen that we cannot predict or control. If we look back on our lives over the past five years we might be able to piece together the small changes that impacted the larger ones, but often we have no idea. People we don’t know and who don’t know us are flapping today in directions that will change our circumstances next week.

Complex systems – they’re fuzzy, enigmatic and wonderful. And we can put the imperfect unpredictable nature of humanity to work to improve our lives and the planet. The key to harnessing the power of the butterfly effect is that small, daily, directionally correct actions can change the world. Our goals define the futures we want to create. When our flaps are focused and frequent, our energies reverberate in a direction aligned with our goals.

Remember Lorenz’s calculations? The tiniest of changes of the initial inputs – from .506127 to .506 – resulted in two very different weather predictions. Each day is an initial input for our future. Sensitivity to initial conditions means that actions taken today create the sunshine and storms of tomorrow. Therefore, keep doing small but right things will reward you in the near future. Sometimes the simplest answer is the answer. Flap, flap, flap.